{
  "id": "test-jj-joint-emergence-prereg",
  "type": "prediction",
  "title": "Pre-Registered \u2014 Test JJ Joint 7-Vector Emergence Criteria",
  "status": "open",
  "project": "gwc_test_jj",
  "date_published": "2026-05-09",
  "date_updated": "2026-05-12",
  "tags": [
    "prediction",
    "test-jj",
    "joint-operator",
    "prereg",
    "falsifiable",
    "coupled-cavity"
  ],
  "author": "Jonathan Shelton",
  "log_subtype": "pre_registration",
  "url": "https://prometheusresearch.tech/research/predictions/test-jj-joint-emergence-prereg.html",
  "source_markdown_url": "https://prometheusresearch.tech/research/_src/predictions/test-jj-joint-emergence-prereg.md.txt",
  "json_url": "https://prometheusresearch.tech/api/entries/test-jj-joint-emergence-prereg.json",
  "summary_excerpt": "Pre-registered prediction for Test JJ Phase 1 joint-7-vector search, filed 2026-05-09.\nThe claim: the joint-7-vector emerges from coupled-cavity drive when (1) cos-distance \u2265 0.15 from linear superposition at drive imbalance, (2) the non-monotonic teeter-totter signature is visible (emergence vanish...",
  "frontmatter": {
    "id": "test-jj-joint-emergence-prereg",
    "type": "prediction",
    "title": "Pre-Registered \u2014 Test JJ Joint 7-Vector Emergence Criteria",
    "date_published": "2026-05-09",
    "date_updated": "2026-05-12",
    "project": "gwc_test_jj",
    "status": "open",
    "log_subtype": "pre_registration",
    "tags": [
      "prediction",
      "test-jj",
      "joint-operator",
      "prereg",
      "falsifiable",
      "coupled-cavity"
    ],
    "author": "Jonathan Shelton",
    "predicts": [
      "joint-7-vector-emerges-from-coupling"
    ],
    "see_also": [
      "test-jj-phase1-coupled-cavity",
      "aperture-coupling-falsified"
    ]
  },
  "body_markdown": "\n## Author notes\n\nThis is a **pre-registered prediction** for the Test JJ Phase 1\njoint-7-vector search. Pre-registration ensures the success criteria\nare locked before the experimental result is observed, eliminating\nthe possibility of post-hoc threshold adjustment.\n\n### Background\n\nThe framework predicts that the seven foundational geometric\nexpressions (CONCENTRATE, DISTRIBUTE, RADIATE, POLARIZE, TRIANGULATE,\nCUBIFY, FRUSTRATE) should *compose* when geometries couple \u2014 producing\na joint spectral fingerprint distinct from the sum of two independent\nsingle-cavity fingerprints. Test JJ Phase 1 puts that prediction in\nfront of three coupling topologies (aperture, shared_wall, near_field)\nand a decoh teeter-totter (0.10/0.50 \u2192 0.30/0.30 \u2192 0.50/0.10).\n\nA prior attempt to detect this emergence in aperture-coupling alone\nwas [falsified](/research/notes/aperture-coupling-falsified.html).\nPhase 1 expands to three topologies so the question is settled\nacross the coupling landscape.\n\n### The pre-registered claim\n\n**Joint emergence is detected when:**\n- The coupled-pair fingerprint has cos-distance \u2265 0.15 from the\n  sum of single-cavity fingerprints (i.e., the coupled run is\n  *materially* different from the linear superposition).\n- AND this cos-distance \u2265 0.15 holds at the *boundaries* of the\n  decoh teeter-totter (drive imbalance) but NOT at symmetric drive\n  (0.30/0.30) \u2014 the non-monotonic signature.\n- AND this pattern holds for at least one of {aperture, shared_wall}\n  topologies but NOT for the near_field control.\n\n### Quantitative thresholds\n\n**Confirmed if (all of):**\n1. cos-distance \u2265 0.15 at (0.10/0.50) AND/OR (0.50/0.10) in\n   aperture or shared_wall topology.\n2. cos-distance \u2264 0.08 at (0.30/0.30) symmetric drive (the\n   \"joint mode vanishes at balance\" non-monotonic signature).\n3. cos-distance \u2264 0.10 in the near_field control across all\n   decoh ratios (the \"no joint mode in uncoupled control\"\n   signature).\n\n**Partially confirmed if (any of):**\n- cos-distance 0.08\u20130.15 at boundary drives but non-monotonic\n  signature is partially visible.\n- Joint emergence shows in one of {aperture, shared_wall} but the\n  other is null (suggests topology-dependent emergence \u2014 still a\n  finding).\n\n**Falsified if (any of):**\n- cos-distance < 0.08 across all three topologies and all decoh\n  ratios (no joint emergence detected at this scale).\n- cos-distance is monotonic in decoh ratio (joint behavior is\n  linear mixing, not non-monotonic emergence).\n- Joint emergence appears in near_field control at similar\n  amplitude to aperture/shared_wall (suggests artifact, not real\n  emergence).\n\n### Why the non-monotonic signature is the load-bearing criterion\n\nA joint-7-vector that exists only at specific drive imbalances is\nthe framework's *prediction*. Linear mixing of two cavity modes\nwould produce a *monotonic* response to drive balance \u2014 peaking\nat one extreme or the other but smoothly varying. A real joint\nemergence should appear at imbalance, vanish at balance, and\nreappear at the opposite imbalance \u2014 the teeter-totter signature.\n\nThis is what distinguishes a genuine framework-confirming result\nfrom a mundane linear-mixing observation. If Phase 1 produces a\n*monotonic* response (even a large-amplitude one), the framework's\nspecific claim is *not* confirmed; what's confirmed is linear\ncoupling, which is uninteresting.\n\n### Why pre-registration is critical here\n\nAperture coupling Phase 0 was falsified at slightly different\nthresholds than initially considered. Test JJ Phase 1 needs the\nthresholds locked *before* the results land, so post-hoc claims of\n\"oh, the emergence was at 0.12 cos-distance instead of 0.15, that\nstill counts\" can't be made.\n\nThe thresholds in this entry are the official ones. They will not\nbe revised retroactively. The experimental result either lands in\nthe confirmed window, the partially-confirmed window, the falsified\nwindow, or somewhere outside all three (ambiguous result).\n\n### Status of evaluation\n\n- Phase 1 simulations are running on Hetzner. As of 2026-05-12,\n  ~60% of the (topology \u00d7 decoh) grid is complete.\n- Preliminary indication: the cos-distance values are clustering\n  below 0.10 across all completed configurations.\n- This is suggestive of falsification but is not yet conclusive\n  (need the full grid + statistical confidence intervals).\n- Pre-registered judgment will be filed when the full Phase 1 grid\n  completes.\n\n## Summary\n\n**Pre-registered prediction** for Test JJ Phase 1 joint-7-vector\nsearch, filed 2026-05-09.\n\n**The claim:** the joint-7-vector emerges from coupled-cavity drive\nwhen (1) cos-distance \u2265 0.15 from linear superposition at drive\nimbalance, (2) the non-monotonic teeter-totter signature is visible\n(emergence vanishes at symmetric drive), and (3) the near_field\ncontrol is null (cos-distance \u2264 0.10).\n\n**Confirmed window:**\n- cos-distance \u2265 0.15 at decoh (0.10/0.50) and/or (0.50/0.10)\n- cos-distance \u2264 0.08 at decoh (0.30/0.30)\n- cos-distance \u2264 0.10 in near_field control\n\n**Falsified window:**\n- cos-distance < 0.08 everywhere \u2192 no joint emergence\n- Monotonic response \u2192 linear mixing only\n- Joint signal in near_field \u2192 artifact\n\n**Why the non-monotonic signature matters:** linear mixing produces\na monotonic response; real joint emergence should appear at\nimbalance, vanish at balance, reappear at the opposite imbalance.\nThis distinguishes the framework's specific claim from generic\nlinear coupling.\n\n**Status: open.** Phase 1 ~60% complete on Hetzner. Preliminary\nindication: cos-distance clustering below 0.10 (suggestive of\nfalsification but not conclusive). Full grid result will fall in\none of the four pre-registered windows.\n\n**Pre-registration locks thresholds** so post-hoc adjustment is\nimpossible. The result either lands where it lands.\n",
  "body_html": "<h2>Author notes</h2>\n<p>This is a <strong>pre-registered prediction</strong> for the Test JJ Phase 1 joint-7-vector search. Pre-registration ensures the success criteria are locked before the experimental result is observed, eliminating the possibility of post-hoc threshold adjustment.</p>\n<h3>Background</h3>\n<p>The framework predicts that the seven foundational geometric expressions (CONCENTRATE, DISTRIBUTE, RADIATE, POLARIZE, TRIANGULATE, CUBIFY, FRUSTRATE) should *compose* when geometries couple \u2014 producing a joint spectral fingerprint distinct from the sum of two independent single-cavity fingerprints. Test JJ Phase 1 puts that prediction in front of three coupling topologies (aperture, shared_wall, near_field) and a decoh teeter-totter (0.10/0.50 \u2192 0.30/0.30 \u2192 0.50/0.10).</p>\n<p>A prior attempt to detect this emergence in aperture-coupling alone was <a href=\"/research/notes/aperture-coupling-falsified.html\">falsified</a>. Phase 1 expands to three topologies so the question is settled across the coupling landscape.</p>\n<h3>The pre-registered claim</h3>\n<p><strong>Joint emergence is detected when:</strong></p>\n<ul>\n<li>The coupled-pair fingerprint has cos-distance \u2265 0.15 from the</li>\n<p>sum of single-cavity fingerprints (i.e., the coupled run is *materially* different from the linear superposition).</p>\n<li>AND this cos-distance \u2265 0.15 holds at the *boundaries* of the</li>\n<p>decoh teeter-totter (drive imbalance) but NOT at symmetric drive (0.30/0.30) \u2014 the non-monotonic signature.</p>\n<li>AND this pattern holds for at least one of {aperture, shared_wall}</li>\n<p>topologies but NOT for the near_field control.</p>\n</ul>\n<h3>Quantitative thresholds</h3>\n<p><strong>Confirmed if (all of):</strong> 1. cos-distance \u2265 0.15 at (0.10/0.50) AND/OR (0.50/0.10) in aperture or shared_wall topology. 2. cos-distance \u2264 0.08 at (0.30/0.30) symmetric drive (the \"joint mode vanishes at balance\" non-monotonic signature). 3. cos-distance \u2264 0.10 in the near_field control across all decoh ratios (the \"no joint mode in uncoupled control\" signature).</p>\n<p><strong>Partially confirmed if (any of):</strong></p>\n<ul>\n<li>cos-distance 0.08\u20130.15 at boundary drives but non-monotonic</li>\n<p>signature is partially visible.</p>\n<li>Joint emergence shows in one of {aperture, shared_wall} but the</li>\n<p>other is null (suggests topology-dependent emergence \u2014 still a finding).</p>\n</ul>\n<p><strong>Falsified if (any of):</strong></p>\n<ul>\n<li>cos-distance < 0.08 across all three topologies and all decoh</li>\n<p>ratios (no joint emergence detected at this scale).</p>\n<li>cos-distance is monotonic in decoh ratio (joint behavior is</li>\n<p>linear mixing, not non-monotonic emergence).</p>\n<li>Joint emergence appears in near_field control at similar</li>\n<p>amplitude to aperture/shared_wall (suggests artifact, not real emergence).</p>\n</ul>\n<h3>Why the non-monotonic signature is the load-bearing criterion</h3>\n<p>A joint-7-vector that exists only at specific drive imbalances is the framework's *prediction*. Linear mixing of two cavity modes would produce a *monotonic* response to drive balance \u2014 peaking at one extreme or the other but smoothly varying. A real joint emergence should appear at imbalance, vanish at balance, and reappear at the opposite imbalance \u2014 the teeter-totter signature.</p>\n<p>This is what distinguishes a genuine framework-confirming result from a mundane linear-mixing observation. If Phase 1 produces a *monotonic* response (even a large-amplitude one), the framework's specific claim is *not* confirmed; what's confirmed is linear coupling, which is uninteresting.</p>\n<h3>Why pre-registration is critical here</h3>\n<p>Aperture coupling Phase 0 was falsified at slightly different thresholds than initially considered. Test JJ Phase 1 needs the thresholds locked *before* the results land, so post-hoc claims of \"oh, the emergence was at 0.12 cos-distance instead of 0.15, that still counts\" can't be made.</p>\n<p>The thresholds in this entry are the official ones. They will not be revised retroactively. The experimental result either lands in the confirmed window, the partially-confirmed window, the falsified window, or somewhere outside all three (ambiguous result).</p>\n<h3>Status of evaluation</h3>\n<ul>\n<li>Phase 1 simulations are running on Hetzner. As of 2026-05-12,</li>\n<p>~60% of the (topology \u00d7 decoh) grid is complete.</p>\n<li>Preliminary indication: the cos-distance values are clustering</li>\n<p>below 0.10 across all completed configurations.</p>\n<li>This is suggestive of falsification but is not yet conclusive</li>\n<p>(need the full grid + statistical confidence intervals).</p>\n<li>Pre-registered judgment will be filed when the full Phase 1 grid</li>\n<p>completes.</p>\n</ul>\n<h2>Summary</h2>\n<p><strong>Pre-registered prediction</strong> for Test JJ Phase 1 joint-7-vector search, filed 2026-05-09.</p>\n<p><strong>The claim:</strong> the joint-7-vector emerges from coupled-cavity drive when (1) cos-distance \u2265 0.15 from linear superposition at drive imbalance, (2) the non-monotonic teeter-totter signature is visible (emergence vanishes at symmetric drive), and (3) the near_field control is null (cos-distance \u2264 0.10).</p>\n<p><strong>Confirmed window:</strong></p>\n<ul>\n<li>cos-distance \u2265 0.15 at decoh (0.10/0.50) and/or (0.50/0.10)</li>\n<li>cos-distance \u2264 0.08 at decoh (0.30/0.30)</li>\n<li>cos-distance \u2264 0.10 in near_field control</li>\n</ul>\n<p><strong>Falsified window:</strong></p>\n<ul>\n<li>cos-distance < 0.08 everywhere \u2192 no joint emergence</li>\n<li>Monotonic response \u2192 linear mixing only</li>\n<li>Joint signal in near_field \u2192 artifact</li>\n</ul>\n<p><strong>Why the non-monotonic signature matters:</strong> linear mixing produces a monotonic response; real joint emergence should appear at imbalance, vanish at balance, reappear at the opposite imbalance. This distinguishes the framework's specific claim from generic linear coupling.</p>\n<p><strong>Status: open.</strong> Phase 1 ~60% complete on Hetzner. Preliminary indication: cos-distance clustering below 0.10 (suggestive of falsification but not conclusive). Full grid result will fall in one of the four pre-registered windows.</p>\n<p><strong>Pre-registration locks thresholds</strong> so post-hoc adjustment is impossible. The result either lands where it lands.</p>",
  "see_also": [
    "test-jj-phase1-coupled-cavity",
    "aperture-coupling-falsified"
  ],
  "cited_by": [
    "test-jj-pre-launch-contrarian-audit"
  ],
  "attachments": [],
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "generated_at": "2026-05-12T03:27:18.533879Z"
}