{
  "id": "spiral-self-derivation-prereg",
  "type": "prediction",
  "title": "Pre-Registered \u2014 Spiral Coordinate Self-Derivation from r=0.5 + Cone Geometry",
  "status": "open",
  "project": "cipher_v12",
  "date_published": "2026-04-03",
  "date_updated": "2026-05-12",
  "tags": [
    "prediction",
    "spiral-coordinate",
    "self-derivation",
    "sim-003",
    "r-0.5",
    "prereg",
    "falsifiable",
    "paper-3-blocker"
  ],
  "author": "Jonathan Shelton",
  "log_subtype": "pre_registration",
  "url": "https://prometheusresearch.tech/research/predictions/spiral-self-derivation-prereg.html",
  "source_markdown_url": "https://prometheusresearch.tech/research/_src/predictions/spiral-self-derivation-prereg.md.txt",
  "json_url": "https://prometheusresearch.tech/api/entries/spiral-self-derivation-prereg.json",
  "summary_excerpt": "Pre-registered prediction for the spiral coordinate self-derivation that would unblock Paper 3 release.\nBackground: the cipher's spiral coordinate is currently set empirically via Thomson/Fibonacci hybrid. v11/v12 produce 91/107 with the empirical spiral \u2014 but the spiral itself isn't derived from th...",
  "frontmatter": {
    "id": "spiral-self-derivation-prereg",
    "type": "prediction",
    "title": "Pre-Registered \u2014 Spiral Coordinate Self-Derivation from r=0.5 + Cone Geometry",
    "date_published": "2026-04-03",
    "date_updated": "2026-05-12",
    "project": "cipher_v12",
    "status": "open",
    "log_subtype": "pre_registration",
    "tags": [
      "prediction",
      "spiral-coordinate",
      "self-derivation",
      "sim-003",
      "r-0.5",
      "prereg",
      "falsifiable",
      "paper-3-blocker"
    ],
    "author": "Jonathan Shelton",
    "predicts": [
      "cipher-spiral-derives-from-first-principles"
    ],
    "see_also": [
      "sim-003-v6c-cone-cascade",
      "cipher-v11-complete-self-derivation",
      "paper-3-status-2026-05"
    ]
  },
  "body_markdown": "\n## Author notes\n\nThe cipher's spiral coordinate (where electrons are seated on the\nC_potential's internal geometry) is currently set empirically via\na Thomson/Fibonacci hybrid. This works (v11/v12 produce 91/107 with\n0 misses) but the spiral itself is not *derived* from the framework's\naxioms \u2014 it's empirically tuned. This pre-registration locks the\nspecific values the spiral *should* take if the\n[SIM-003 cone-cascade](/research/tests/sim-003-v6c-cone-cascade.html)\nderivation chain produces it from first principles.\n\n### Why pre-registration matters here\n\nIf SIM-003 converges to a spiral and the framework operator\n*then* checks whether it matches the cipher's empirically-set\nspiral, there's a circularity risk: any small adjustment of the\nSIM-003 parameters could be (post-hoc) tuned to match the\nempirical spiral, giving a false derivation. Pre-registration\nlocks the empirical spiral values *now* so the SIM-003 outcome\neither matches or doesn't.\n\n### The pre-registered spiral parameters\n\nThe empirical Thomson/Fibonacci hybrid spiral that v11/v12 use\nhas the following characteristic values:\n\n| Property | Empirical value | Tolerance |\n|---|---|---|\n| Bulge position (max radius / mean radius) | 1.29 | \u00b10.02 |\n| Floor frequency (lowest stable seat) | 0.207 c (where c = 1) | \u00b10.005 |\n| First seat / second seat angular spacing | 137.51\u00b0 | \u00b10.2\u00b0 |\n| Spiral pitch ratio (Z-axis advance per turn) | 0.143 | \u00b10.005 |\n| Decoherence ceiling | 0.500 | \u00b10.003 |\n\nThese five numbers fully specify the spiral as v11/v12 uses it.\nSIM-003 v6c is the simulation that should *derive* these five\nnumbers from the framework's three axioms (f|t pulse, r=0.5\nceiling, {2,3} organizing pair) plus the geometry of the cone-\ncascade architecture.\n\n### Confirmation thresholds\n\n**Fully confirmed if:**\n- SIM-003 v6c converges to a spiral whose bulge position is in\n  [1.27, 1.31].\n- Floor frequency in [0.202, 0.212] (c-units).\n- Angular spacing of first two seats in [137.31\u00b0, 137.71\u00b0].\n- Spiral pitch in [0.138, 0.148].\n- Decoherence ceiling in [0.497, 0.503].\n\nALL five values must match within tolerance for full confirmation.\n\n**Partially confirmed if:**\n- 3 or 4 of the 5 values match within tolerance.\n- The 1-2 mismatching values are within 2\u00d7 the tolerance.\n\n**Falsified if:**\n- Fewer than 3 values match within tolerance.\n- ANY value is off by more than 5\u00d7 the tolerance.\n- SIM-003 v6c fails to converge or produces a non-spiral\n  configuration.\n\n### What this would unblock\n\n[Paper 3 (Cipher)](/research/paper-status/paper-3-status-2026-05.html)\nis currently HELD pending spiral self-derivation. If this\nprediction confirms:\n1. The cipher becomes a complete self-derivation chain from\n   axioms through prediction.\n2. Paper 3 is released within 2-3 weeks of confirmation.\n3. The framework's intellectual-honesty discipline is satisfied \u2014\n   no fit-shaped hole in the most consequential paper.\n\nIf this prediction is falsified (or only partially confirmed),\nPaper 3 remains held until an alternative derivation path\n(bulge/floor approach, or others) produces the spiral.\n\n### Why the spiral is the load-bearing piece\n\nThe cipher's other components (eigenvalue spectrum from CN, snap-\ntunneling from percolation topology, bicone simultaneous derivation)\nare all *derivable* from the framework's axioms + the Z-determined\nshell structure. The spiral is the *one* piece that currently\nneeds empirical input. If it derives from the cone cascade, the\ncipher chain is complete; if not, the chain has a gap.\n\nThis is why Paper 3 is held. Publishing with a gap in the\nderivation chain would be publishing a paper with a fit at its\ncore \u2014 exactly what the framework's discipline forbids.\n\n### Status of evaluation\n\n- [SIM-003 v6c](/research/tests/sim-003-v6c-cone-cascade.html) is\n  currently running on Hetzner. As of 2026-05-12, ~36 hours into\n  a ~96-hour run; global_r tracking ~0.487 (trending toward 0.5).\n- If SIM-003 v6c converges to r=0.5, the spiral derivation chain\n  should complete and the five pre-registered values will land\n  somewhere on the confirmed / partially confirmed / falsified\n  scale.\n\n## Summary\n\n**Pre-registered prediction** for the spiral coordinate self-derivation\nthat would unblock Paper 3 release.\n\n**Background:** the cipher's spiral coordinate is currently set\nempirically via Thomson/Fibonacci hybrid. v11/v12 produce 91/107\nwith the empirical spiral \u2014 but the spiral itself isn't derived\nfrom the framework's axioms. Paper 3 (Cipher) is HELD pending\nspiral self-derivation.\n\n**The 5 empirical spiral values pre-registered:**\n| Property | Empirical value | Tolerance |\n|---|---|---|\n| Bulge position | 1.29 | \u00b10.02 |\n| Floor frequency | 0.207 c | \u00b10.005 |\n| First\u2192second seat angle | 137.51\u00b0 | \u00b10.2\u00b0 |\n| Spiral pitch | 0.143 | \u00b10.005 |\n| Decoherence ceiling | 0.500 | \u00b10.003 |\n\n**Confirmation:** all 5 match within tolerance.\n**Partial:** 3-4 of 5 within tolerance.\n**Falsified:** <3 within tolerance, OR any off by >5\u00d7 tolerance.\n\n**Test:** [SIM-003 v6c cone-cascade simulation](/research/tests/sim-003-v6c-cone-cascade.html)\nshould derive these five values from the framework's three axioms\nplus cone-cascade geometry. Currently running on Hetzner.\n\n**What this unblocks:**\n- Confirmation \u2192 [Paper 3](/research/paper-status/paper-3-status-2026-05.html)\n  released within 2-3 weeks. Cipher derivation chain complete.\n- Falsified \u2192 Paper 3 stays held; alternative derivation path\n  (bulge/floor approach) explored next.\n\n**Why pre-registration:** prevents circularity. The empirical\nspiral values are locked *before* SIM-003 results land. Post-hoc\ntuning of SIM-003 parameters to match the empirical spiral would\nbe a false derivation; pre-registration forecloses this.\n\n**Status: open.** SIM-003 v6c convergence is the gating event.\nResult lands wherever it lands.\n",
  "body_html": "<h2>Author notes</h2>\n<p>The cipher's spiral coordinate (where electrons are seated on the C_potential's internal geometry) is currently set empirically via a Thomson/Fibonacci hybrid. This works (v11/v12 produce 91/107 with 0 misses) but the spiral itself is not *derived* from the framework's axioms \u2014 it's empirically tuned. This pre-registration locks the specific values the spiral *should* take if the <a href=\"/research/tests/sim-003-v6c-cone-cascade.html\">SIM-003 cone-cascade</a> derivation chain produces it from first principles.</p>\n<h3>Why pre-registration matters here</h3>\n<p>If SIM-003 converges to a spiral and the framework operator *then* checks whether it matches the cipher's empirically-set spiral, there's a circularity risk: any small adjustment of the SIM-003 parameters could be (post-hoc) tuned to match the empirical spiral, giving a false derivation. Pre-registration locks the empirical spiral values *now* so the SIM-003 outcome either matches or doesn't.</p>\n<h3>The pre-registered spiral parameters</h3>\n<p>The empirical Thomson/Fibonacci hybrid spiral that v11/v12 use has the following characteristic values:</p>\n<table class=\"entry-table\">\n<thead><tr>\n<th>Property</th>\n<th>Empirical value</th>\n<th>Tolerance</th>\n</tr></thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Bulge position (max radius / mean radius)</td>\n<td>1.29</td>\n<td>\u00b10.02</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Floor frequency (lowest stable seat)</td>\n<td>0.207 c (where c = 1)</td>\n<td>\u00b10.005</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>First seat / second seat angular spacing</td>\n<td>137.51\u00b0</td>\n<td>\u00b10.2\u00b0</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Spiral pitch ratio (Z-axis advance per turn)</td>\n<td>0.143</td>\n<td>\u00b10.005</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Decoherence ceiling</td>\n<td>0.500</td>\n<td>\u00b10.003</td>\n</tr>\n</tbody></table>\n<p>These five numbers fully specify the spiral as v11/v12 uses it. SIM-003 v6c is the simulation that should *derive* these five numbers from the framework's three axioms (f|t pulse, r=0.5 ceiling, {2,3} organizing pair) plus the geometry of the cone- cascade architecture.</p>\n<h3>Confirmation thresholds</h3>\n<p><strong>Fully confirmed if:</strong></p>\n<ul>\n<li>SIM-003 v6c converges to a spiral whose bulge position is in</li>\n<p>[1.27, 1.31].</p>\n<li>Floor frequency in [0.202, 0.212] (c-units).</li>\n<li>Angular spacing of first two seats in [137.31\u00b0, 137.71\u00b0].</li>\n<li>Spiral pitch in [0.138, 0.148].</li>\n<li>Decoherence ceiling in [0.497, 0.503].</li>\n</ul>\n<p>ALL five values must match within tolerance for full confirmation.</p>\n<p><strong>Partially confirmed if:</strong></p>\n<ul>\n<li>3 or 4 of the 5 values match within tolerance.</li>\n<li>The 1-2 mismatching values are within 2\u00d7 the tolerance.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><strong>Falsified if:</strong></p>\n<ul>\n<li>Fewer than 3 values match within tolerance.</li>\n<li>ANY value is off by more than 5\u00d7 the tolerance.</li>\n<li>SIM-003 v6c fails to converge or produces a non-spiral</li>\n<p>configuration.</p>\n</ul>\n<h3>What this would unblock</h3>\n<p><a href=\"/research/paper-status/paper-3-status-2026-05.html\">Paper 3 (Cipher)</a> is currently HELD pending spiral self-derivation. If this prediction confirms: 1. The cipher becomes a complete self-derivation chain from axioms through prediction. 2. Paper 3 is released within 2-3 weeks of confirmation. 3. The framework's intellectual-honesty discipline is satisfied \u2014 no fit-shaped hole in the most consequential paper.</p>\n<p>If this prediction is falsified (or only partially confirmed), Paper 3 remains held until an alternative derivation path (bulge/floor approach, or others) produces the spiral.</p>\n<h3>Why the spiral is the load-bearing piece</h3>\n<p>The cipher's other components (eigenvalue spectrum from CN, snap- tunneling from percolation topology, bicone simultaneous derivation) are all *derivable* from the framework's axioms + the Z-determined shell structure. The spiral is the *one* piece that currently needs empirical input. If it derives from the cone cascade, the cipher chain is complete; if not, the chain has a gap.</p>\n<p>This is why Paper 3 is held. Publishing with a gap in the derivation chain would be publishing a paper with a fit at its core \u2014 exactly what the framework's discipline forbids.</p>\n<h3>Status of evaluation</h3>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"/research/tests/sim-003-v6c-cone-cascade.html\">SIM-003 v6c</a> is</li>\n<p>currently running on Hetzner. As of 2026-05-12, ~36 hours into a ~96-hour run; global_r tracking ~0.487 (trending toward 0.5).</p>\n<li>If SIM-003 v6c converges to r=0.5, the spiral derivation chain</li>\n<p>should complete and the five pre-registered values will land somewhere on the confirmed / partially confirmed / falsified scale.</p>\n</ul>\n<h2>Summary</h2>\n<p><strong>Pre-registered prediction</strong> for the spiral coordinate self-derivation that would unblock Paper 3 release.</p>\n<p><strong>Background:</strong> the cipher's spiral coordinate is currently set empirically via Thomson/Fibonacci hybrid. v11/v12 produce 91/107 with the empirical spiral \u2014 but the spiral itself isn't derived from the framework's axioms. Paper 3 (Cipher) is HELD pending spiral self-derivation.</p>\n<p><strong>The 5 empirical spiral values pre-registered:</strong></p>\n<table class=\"entry-table\">\n<thead><tr>\n<th>Property</th>\n<th>Empirical value</th>\n<th>Tolerance</th>\n</tr></thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Bulge position</td>\n<td>1.29</td>\n<td>\u00b10.02</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Floor frequency</td>\n<td>0.207 c</td>\n<td>\u00b10.005</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>First\u2192second seat angle</td>\n<td>137.51\u00b0</td>\n<td>\u00b10.2\u00b0</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Spiral pitch</td>\n<td>0.143</td>\n<td>\u00b10.005</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Decoherence ceiling</td>\n<td>0.500</td>\n<td>\u00b10.003</td>\n</tr>\n</tbody></table>\n<p><strong>Confirmation:</strong> all 5 match within tolerance. <strong>Partial:</strong> 3-4 of 5 within tolerance. <strong>Falsified:</strong> <3 within tolerance, OR any off by >5\u00d7 tolerance.</p>\n<p><strong>Test:</strong> <a href=\"/research/tests/sim-003-v6c-cone-cascade.html\">SIM-003 v6c cone-cascade simulation</a> should derive these five values from the framework's three axioms plus cone-cascade geometry. Currently running on Hetzner.</p>\n<p><strong>What this unblocks:</strong></p>\n<ul>\n<li>Confirmation \u2192 <a href=\"/research/paper-status/paper-3-status-2026-05.html\">Paper 3</a></li>\n<p>released within 2-3 weeks. Cipher derivation chain complete.</p>\n<li>Falsified \u2192 Paper 3 stays held; alternative derivation path</li>\n<p>(bulge/floor approach) explored next.</p>\n</ul>\n<p><strong>Why pre-registration:</strong> prevents circularity. The empirical spiral values are locked *before* SIM-003 results land. Post-hoc tuning of SIM-003 parameters to match the empirical spiral would be a false derivation; pre-registration forecloses this.</p>\n<p><strong>Status: open.</strong> SIM-003 v6c convergence is the gating event. Result lands wherever it lands.</p>",
  "see_also": [
    "sim-003-v6c-cone-cascade",
    "cipher-v11-complete-self-derivation",
    "paper-3-status-2026-05"
  ],
  "cited_by": [],
  "attachments": [],
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "generated_at": "2026-05-12T03:27:18.533879Z"
}